Visual novel predictions on Manifold

[Tulip]

Visual novels are fun. Trying to predict the future is also fun. Therefore, I've been trying to build up a community of people trying to predict the future specifically on the topic of visual novels!

More specifically, there's a site, Manifold, whose core thing is crowdsourced predictions: everyone who joins gets a bunch of play-money (to be clear: fake internet money, not real currency); they can bet it on predictions regarding what might happen in the future; those bets get aggregated into estimates of how likely the bet-upon future events are, based on what odds people are willing to bet at; and then, once the future events come around and the true answers become clear, people who were better at predicting future events' likelihood tend to get more returns on their bets, gaining more play-money and making their way up the site leaderboards. It's fun! So I've been creating a bunch of questions-open-for-people-to-bet-on related to visual novels there! Examples include:

• Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2025?
• How soon after the release of Fate/stay night Remastered will there be a working fan-patch to re-add the sex scenes?
• What route order will be enforced in Tsukihime -The other side of red garden-?

...et cetera. (There are a bunch more, ~all listed on the site's Visual Novels topic page.)

Currently, Manifold doesn't seem to have very much visual novel fan-community-presence. Not many people there are asking visual-novel-related questions, and not many people are betting on the ones that are asked. But it seems to me that there's lots of potential for more! There are lots more VNs about which interesting questions can be asked than just the ones I personally take enough interest in to open questions about on the site; there are lots more VN-fans who might have good predictive insights on the questions already open; et cetera. So I figure it's worth pointing people at the site from here, as an attempted step towards building a relatively-more-robust VN-fan-community there.

[jeteh82745]

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