Climate change, global warming discussion

[Flutterz]

Actually, you're probably right. As I said I don't know much about global warming, and I was under the impression that it was more a fact than a theory.

Thing is fact and theory are from 2 different categories. A fact is a confirmable observation, like "an object will fall if you let go" and a theory is an accepted explanation of a fact, like "it falls due to gravity".

[Down]

Thing is fact and theory are from 2 different categories. A fact is a confirmable observation, like "an object will fall if you let go" and a theory is an accepted explanation of a fact, like "it falls due to gravity".

 

Precisely. The point is, I was making a confusion between the fact "Temperature is rising due to human activity" (which some people reject) and the theory that explains the how and why of this phenomenon (which is also rejected by different people for different reasons).

[Kaguya]

Precisely. The point is, I was making a confusion between the fact "Temperature is rising due to human activity" (which some people reject) and the theory that explains the how and why of this phenomenon (which is also rejected by different people for different reasons).

the "due to human activity" falls in the theory area, though. The fact would be just "temperature is rising". Even though it's obviously because of human activity.

[Nosebleed]

the "due to human activity" falls in the theory area, though. The fact would be just "temperature is rising". Even though it's obviously because of human activity.

According to the video even the "temperature is rising" can be refuted by the actual impossible feat that is measuring temperature on the planet with accuracy.

Though i don't believe this is in any way true and it's obvious these people are just trying to be lazy pieces of existence that want to polute because it's more convinient and requires less work for them.

[Kaguya]

According to the video even the "temperature is rising" can be refuted by the actual impossible feat that is measuring temperature on the planet with accuracy.

Though i don't believe this is in any way true and it's obvious these people are just trying to be lazy pieces of existence that want to polute because it's more convinient and requires less work for them.

Well, Pirulla refutes those bad arguments in the end, so yeah. But even  if"temperature in the planet is rising" ends up falling into theory territory, that's  not a bad thing, since we have incredibly strong arguments to support it.

[Guest]

-_-

Why are you arguing about human influence on global warming when it's obvious that it's linked and has an obvious explanation ...

I don't get it ... Physics.

[Flutterz]

Funny fact, the word theory works in the exact same way in portuguese.

As in the conventional meaning is very different to the scientific one?

[Kaguya]

As in the conventional meaning is very different to the scientific one?

Yeah.

[Darklord Rooke]

According to the video even the "temperature is rising" can be refuted by the actual impossible feat that is measuring temperature on the planet with accuracy.

Though i don't believe this is in any way true and it's obvious these people are just trying to be lazy pieces of existence that want to polute because it's more convinient and requires less work for them.

 

I believe the latest theory is that it's not so much the air, but the ocean. The ocean is drawing most of the excess heat and CO2 out of the air, causing rising ocean temperatures and ocean acidification, and it's the reason we aren't seeing large air temp increases, and the ocean will continue to do so until it reaches it's limit when *my head exploded at this point*

 

I did enjoy reading how one scientist thought global warming may be preventing our next ice coverage on the planet, though. Very interesting.

[Flutterz]

Yeah.

Hmm... In Russian it's also different, but the conventional meaning of theory is more akin to the theory in "theoretical physics", ie as opposed to practice, although it is used instead of hypothesis every now and then. I wonder what other languages have the same thing?

[Kaguya]

Believe it or not, we had about 2 pages of discussion on the subject in the "goverment propaganda" thread- after talking to all of those who took a part in this discussion, I decided to move those posts to this thread and only leave the ones related to goverment propaganda in the government propaganda thread.

[Scars Unseen]

It's probably a good idea to point out that, as far as I'm aware, there is no scientific theory at present regarding global warming.  There are observations and studies.  The overwhelming majority of the scientific community supports the opinion that humans are causing global warming, and there are no national or international scientific bodies that actually reject that opinion.  But even consensus does not make something theory.  

 

It's not enough for the scientific community to agree that we are causing global warming.  A true theory would have to be able to explain how, and this explanation would have to be testable, something that would be difficult given the scope of the subject.  Even that isn't enough, because the true strength of a theory isn't just to explain what is, but to predict what would be under different hypothetical circumstances.

 

This is not a dig on global warming, but rather a caution to avoid using terms that don't yet apply.  All that does is give people room to doubt.

[Izuru]

The Temperature Is Rising Because The Ozone Layer Is Getting Thinner Probably By Smoking Or CFC's Of The Air Conditioner

[Kaguya]

Mid-rant rant: Watching videos in brazilian always makes me chuckle because of the vocabulary/dialect used. As you know i'm from Portugal not Brazil and somehow i always find it much more entertaining seeing videos from Brazil. End of mid-rant rant.

I only watched the first video because i'm lazy.

Like i said i also believe in the current most accepted global warming theory but it's still an interesting video to watch. I can't believe there was an actual teacher teaching such invalid and confusing arguments on a TV show. Although i do want to see it i really do not feel like wasting 2 hours.

Lost it at 4:40:

 

Also the fact that people use conspiracy theories to support the non existence of global warming is just ridiculous. And the last part where he mentions they're brainwashing kids in schools by teaching them these lies. He's pretty much just doing the same by going on TV and attempting to brainwash people with his lies. That contradiction.

 

Overall it's a nice explanatory video but he's mostly attacking the guy and the completely invalid conspiracy theories and that's not much of a debate but more of a falacy (ad hominem) but nonetheless it's a good thing because the idea i got of the original debate is ridiuclous. And i'm glad someone pointed it out.

 

Again like he says. Science works with debate. Currently the most accepted theory is the one we're all familiar with that they teach us in most schools. But there will always be people who disagree and try to prove them wrong and that's okay as long as those people use valid arguments which apparently that teacher did not do and we end up with a hilarious video.

The first two videos are only addressing the professor, as I said before. The actual information comes from the thrid one.

[Star]

Hey now, we all know its not Carbon emissions or water vapor

its perfectly clear what's the cause of the changes

Aliens. 

[O. Van Bruce]

Oh wow.... it lives!

[sanahtlig]

The overwhelming consensus among scientists is that climate change is real, it's manmade, and it will radically alter our environment over the course of the next few centuries if we continue on our present course.  Browse through the editorials in reputable scientific journals and you'll see scientists puzzling over how to convince the public that climate change isn't some sort of elaborate hoax, but also that it's a complex topic and can't be conveniently predicted like the 5-day weather forecast.  The unfortunate fact of the matter is that we as a species are currently conducting the grandest experiment the world has ever seen: just how much greenhouse gas can we pump into our atmosphere before we set off a cascade of climatological events that cannot be reversed?

 

No one knows, but we may be about to find out.

[Darklord Rooke]

The unfortunate fact of the matter is that we as a species are currently conducting the grandest experiment the world has ever seen

 

Nah. There have been far more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere before, and there will be again. The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will mean bad things for mankind, not for the planet. The planet is amazingly resilient.

 

Our climate is always radically altering. Going off the top of my head, this planet seems to have 3 different phases, greenhouse which means no ice at the poles, I've heard some people suggest this was our planet's default setting, and the two stages of ice age, one of which we are currently in. The two stages of ice age are the periods when ice is in recline (what we are in now,) and a period where ice creeps across the earth, a period which is actually overdue and some scientists are starting to think it's been delayed by the buildup of greenhouse gases.

[cryofrzd]

The questions one should ask is:

 

Is the temperature rising more or faster in the last few centuries than what can be considered as normal temperature deviation on Earth (as temperature here has fallen and rised over the centuries).

 

Step by step guide

Get the standard deviation + expected value for annual temperature change.

Construct fitting normal distribution.
Construct a hypothesis say "Temperature change is in the statistical margin of error by X percent"
Find contradiction
Profit

 

It's a standard statistical test, and should have been done many times. But we still have to prove the humans were the cause of it.

[sanahtlig]

By "experiment", I was referring to an act conducted by a sentient being--which excludes all of prehistory.

 

From my admittedly shallow study of world climate over the course of the 4 billion years of Earth's history, it can be summed up as follows.  The world was largely tropical until the Carboniferous period, when plants spread across the world and soaked up much of the CO2, causing a global cooling that has cycled ever since.  Much of this carbon remains locked in organic matter both under the Earth (fossil fuels) and frozen in permafrost.  By burning fossil fuels, we are releasing this carbon back into the atmosphere as CO2.  While the amounts we contribute are rather insignificant, the problem is that even a small change in global climate could cause further release of carbon (in the form of methane) from the permafrost as the organic material thaws and begins to rot (essentially a chain reaction), and because melting ice contributes to a feedforward loop of more of the sun's radiation being absorbed by the planet (since water absorbs more radiation than ice).  The resulting model of climate change is known as runaway climate change.

 

Here's a chart that shows how C02 levels have tracked with global temperatures over geologic time.  Methane is another important greenhouse gas which this particular chart doesn't track.

[Darklord Rooke]

The resulting model of climate change is known as runaway climate change.

 

Ah. That's something I've never come across before.

 

Interesting.

[Darklord Rooke]

Speaking of global warming, do you guys remember how people always say 'what will you tell the future generations? How will you tell them you stuffed up the planet for them?'

 

Well I actually wrote a letter, because I was bored and had a spare 15 minutes, directed to our future generations. But I don't think I'll post it. It's a little emotional.....

[Flutterz]

Dear future generation,

We had fun, you guys get the short end of the stick.

Sincerely,

Best Generation

[Izuru]

In Future We Live In Space Now XD

[cryofrzd]

My letter:

 

Well dear grandchildren, you know what our grandparents told us? Well they told us "When we were young, we took responsibility for our actions". Guess you guys will have a counter-argument to that...