This is my impression of what the state the industry is in right now (some of this is repeated from previous posts I've made here on the forums).
Just to get this out of the way, the VN industry (non-nukige) is currently in the process of contracting and changing priorities. The industry has long relied charage/moege to keep sales up, which has ironically led to most of the writing talent fleeing to other mediums. This wasn't really a problem until the last six years or so. Why has it become a problem? Because my generation in Japan has less money for spending on high school nostalgia than it did back in 2014. At the same time, the younger generation of otakus in Japan is far less interested in standard charage (high school situations, predictable romances, etc), so this means that the industry is not set up to compensate for the demographic changes in its consumer base.
To be blunt, more and more VN consumers want something with an actual story. Unfortunately, due to the trends of the last decade, writers who can actually produce what they want are in short supply. As a result, the VN industry is contracting as companies find they can't replace the talent they abandoned during the charage boom as easily as they could the random ero-writers they've been using up until now.
A few pieces of evidence (that don't involve hearsay). The relative number of plotge to charage made in the last two years (regardless of quality) has tipped toward plotge significantly... though most of those are of lower quality than in the pre-2015 years due to the aforementioned lack of talented writers. Navel and the other major names in particular are aggressively testing the waters, as is evidenced by their releases in the last few years (fewer FDs, more new IPs, resurrection of IPs with a differing atmosphere than previously seen, etc).
A few hiccups: Overcompensation... the fondness of the younger generation for the consumption of escapist material has led to a string of low-quality fantasy VNs in the last couple of years (Digination being the source of many of them). This would normally be a good sign, but it is troubling that the new writing talent that is emerging isn't leaving much of an impression on someone who is as much of a fantasy addict as I am. The flow of money into these 'experimental' games (lol) has diverted funds that probably would have normally been pumped into charage developing, which has caused the actual number of non-nukige VNs released to fall overall.
A key statistic drawn from my experiences over the past decade... Until the last two years, it was normal for 6 or more non-nukige VNs to be released each month on average. However, increasingly we are seeing months where only three or four releases are seen... and those releases differ significantly in nature from previous years (and are even spottier in quality).